Our forecast combines past data with our best judgment to provide expected values for variables, without quantifying uncertainties. We do, however, present sensitivity analyses, which highlight issues that are both uncertain and important. We also analyse uncertainties associated with assumptions that place our outlook at odds with other forecasts.
The most dramatic changes in energy use come from improvements in energy efficiency. The largest changes in the energy mix come from improved cost learning rates for renewables. Behavioural changes affecting, for example, the rate of uptake of electric vehicles and the electrification of buildings, are also important and can shift the pace of transition considerably.
None of the sensitivities discussed, however, alter the main conclusion that the world will undoubtedly experience a rapid energy transition, driven by electrification boosted by a strong growth of wind and solar power generation, and also further decarbonization of the energy system, including the decline in coal, oil, and gas, in that order.