Our forecast has major implications for the oil and gas industry, as well as for renewables, power, and energy intensive industries.
A full discussion of our forecast and its ramifications for these sectors is the subject of dedicated supplements to this report.
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Oil and gas
The most important long-term implications for the oil and gas industry include:
- Oil and gas will retain an important role in the energy mix, together accounting for 44% of world primary energy supply in 2050, compared with 53% today. Continued investments will be needed for new production capacity offshore and onshore.
- In an energy future with more intensive competition and reduced oil demand (mainly driven by rapid EV uptake), the oil and gas industry will intensify its focus on cost efficiency to remain competitive over the forecast period. Tools to achieve this include digitalization, technology innovation, standardization and collaboration.
- Gas will be the largest energy source by 2034, and will hold this position through to 2050, even though its share of the energy mix will start to decline from 2040 onwards. There are large opportunities for gas to co-develop with other energy sources and to add flexibility to the expanding electricity system.
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Power, renewables and energy use
The most important long-term implications for the power and renewables industry include:
- Exponential growth in renewables and electrification of energy demand contrasts with the peaking of oil and later of gas. This will significantly alter the energy industry landscape.
- Consumer-scale technologies such as solar PV systems and EVs will become increasingly cost-competitive, and deployment will accelerate dramatically.
- Portfolios of network projects, some as small as home installations, could become more significant than large utility scale generating plants. Investment horizons will shrink, and investors and insurers will need a new understanding of what they are financing and covering. Change will also embrace investments at residential, commercial and industrial scale, such as battery storage, or energy efficiency measures.
- Digitalization will lead to better connectivity of all elements in the power system. This will optimize the design, planning and operations of assets in wind, solar, transmission, distribution and the use of electricity in society.
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Maritime
The most important long-term implications for the maritime industry include:
- Heading to 2030 shipping will continue to enjoy robust growth, comparable to the last several decades.
- From 2030 to 2050, demand continues to increase, but slightly less rapidly – with the growth primarily in non-energy commodities, such as the container trade and non-coal bulk.
- The fuel mix will be much more diverse. In 2050, oil will remain the main option for trading vessels, but natural gas will step up to become the second-most widely used fuel, and new low carbon alternatives will proliferate.
- Shipping will continue its drive for greater efficiency by reducing costs, improving utilization, lowering fuel consumption, increasing vessel size, and deploying new technologies
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The executive summary, main report, as well as supplementary publications on the industry implications of our forecast are available for download.
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