Shipping will not meet IMO carbon goals under current policies
To monitor progress towards achieving the IMO GHG ambitions, this study introduces a ‘CO2 Barometer’ for the world fleet (see figure above). The CO2 Barometer provides a high-level assessment of the status of decarbonization in the form of a ‘transition pressure level’, reflecting the trend in world fleet carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the uptake of alternative fuels and technologies, and regulations in place to incentivize change.
The CO2 Barometer shows the total emission level is still increasing, despite efficiency gains. If the IMO targets are to be met, it is vital that uptake of low- and zero-emission technologies should begin on large ocean-going ships in the near future. Uptake of alternative fuels and technologies is slowly starting to pick up pace, as indicated in the CO2 Barometer. But the vast majority of tonnage ordered still uses traditional fuels. With current policy measures only, the CO2 Barometer signals that the ambitions in the IMO GHG strategy are not going to be met.