Energy Transition Outlook 2019

The Energy Transition Outlook is DNV GL’s view on the energy future through to 2050 modeling 10 regions and the impact on 3 industry sectors. It is a forecast of the most likely path ahead.

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The energy transition is shifting up the agenda

CEO's foreword

What does the energy transition mean to those most affected by it?

The affordable energy transition

An under-communicated win-win

Energy transition timeline

Peaks and milestones

The technology exists: the policy is missing

10 ways technology can meet the COP21 targets

...but only with strongly enforced policies

Rapid electrification

The share of electricity in the final demand mix will more than double from today’s level

Electric vehicles

Half of passenger vehicles sold worldwide will be EVs by 2032

Peak hydrocarbons

Oil declines steeply after 2030, but gas continues to grow

Not fast enough

At the current pace, emissions will not fall sufficiently by 2050 to bring global warming to well below 2ºC

Peak energy through efficiency gains

Global energy use peaks by 2030. ‘Peak energy’ will be a turning point, as energy efficiency gains outpace economic growth

Rise of renewables

Electrification, powered by renewable sources, is the biggest contributor to reduced energy intensity

Batteries and resource limitations

We anticipate significant growth in the demand for rare earth metals, as well as nickel, manganese, chrome, and copper

The transition is affordable

The world will spend an ever-smaller share of GDP on energy, allowing for additional investment to further speed up the transition

LNG supply and demand

Gas continues to grow before leveling off at 29% of the energy mix by 2050

Access our forecast data

Publications

The download centre on this website contains the suite of publications that make up our 2019 Energy Transition Outlook reports.

Data

If you want to go deeper into the ETO findings, you can access the raw data on our data platform Veracity for free.

New from this year is also a Premium Analytics service. It provides an interactive ETO data visualization interface where you can create your own dynamic views and further explore areas of the forecast model of relevance to you.

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