Primary energy supply peaks
Applying more efficient technologies for energy use – such as substantial electrification in buildings, manufacturing and, significantly, road transport – sees final energy demand level off in the 2030s at some 460 exajoules per year (EJ/yr). It then slowly declines to 446 EJ/yr in 2050 (down 3% from peak). Combined with more efficient electrical generation from renewables, this leads to primary energy supply peaking in 2030 at around 640 EJ, followed by a more pronounced decline than demand to reach 577 EJ in 2050 (down 10% from peak).
The transition to declining energy supply is achieved despite continued population and GDP growth. This shows that applying advances in technology is essential to help the world’s population to prosper while reducing energy supply and, importantly, reducing emissions.