A frontrunner in the transition
- The region is a frontrunner in transition policy but its 2030 target for final energy consumption from renewables won't be met before 2036.
- Focus on the 'economic case' for the transition is increasing.
- The majority of the energy mix will be non-fossil by 2050 and natural gas will overtake oil as Europe's largest primary energy source by 2030.
Europe’s final energy demand has been on a downward trend over the last decade, and will continue to decline towards mid-century. The transport sector will see the strongest reduction in energy demand, with transition to efficient EVs. Energy demand from the manufacturing sector will also decline owing to the shrinkage of the secondary sector in Europe’s economy, but also due to increased efficacy in manufacturing. With a stable population and efficiency gains from switching to more efficient technologies, especially in heating,energy demand in the buildings sector will decrease slightly.
Electrification of the transport sector will be the strongest driver for the reduction in oil consumption over the forecast period. Natural gas will overtake oil as the region’s largest primary energy source before 2030, coal will continue to decline, while biomass will maintain a high share and will be the second-largest energy source in 2050.Fossil energy share will be down to 42% in 2050.