Uncertainty over US future energy developments, strong federal policy action in Canada
- Business cases and sub-regional policies will drive towards substantial regional decarbonization
- Electricity in final energy demand grows from 21% in 2017 to 44% in 2050
- An LNG export boom will unfold in the coming decades
North America’s final energy demand has levelled off and will begin to decline over the coming years. The transport sector will reduce significantly, due to the electrification of the road vehicle fleet. Energy demand from the manufacturing sector will decline strongly because of further reductions in the secondary sector in North America and increased efficiencies.Energy demand in buildings will remain nearly constant over the forecast period, with counteracting forces of population increase and improved energy efficiency.
The electrification of transport will be the strongest driver for the reduction in oil consumption over the forecast period. Natural gas will overtake oil as the region’s largest primary energy source and will consolidate that position over the coming decades. Coal will continue to decline rapidly, as it is outcompeted by natural gas in power generation. As electricity use expands and renewables become cheaper, wind and solar PV will see their energy use grow 10-fold and 25-fold, respectively. By 2050, wind and solar PV together will be almost as large as natural gas.