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What is the Energy Transition Outlook?

This annual Outlook, now in its fourth edition, presents the results from our independent model of the world’s energy system.

It covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy transition globally and in 10 world regions. This report is intended as a strategy-forming tool for analysts and decision makers within the industry and other stakeholders. Our forecast data may be accessed at eto.dnvgl.com/data. The changes we forecast hold significant risks and opportunities for investment strategies, operating models, safety, fuel choice and so on. Some of these are detailed in our ‘industry implication’ supplements:

Our approach

In contrast to scenario-based outlooks, we present a single 'best estimate' forecast of the energy future, with sensitivities discussed in relation to our key conclusions. 

Our model simulates the interactions over time of the consumers of energy (transport, buildings, manufacturing and so on) and all sources of supply. It encompasses demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within world regions. The selection of energy sources is driven algorithmically based on modelled costs, and in some cases, prices. 

The analysis covers the period 1980–2050, with changes unfolding on a multi-year scale, that in some areas is fine-tuned to reflect hourly dynamics. We include policy factors in our forecast like subsidies, carbon pricing, pollution interventions and energy-efficiency standards. Some behavioural change is also accounted for, largely in relation to a changing environment.

Independent view

DNV GL was founded 156 years ago to safeguard life, property and the environment. We are owned by a foundation and are trusted by a wide range of customers to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses. More than 70% of our business is related to energy. Two of our main business areas focus, respectively, on oil and gas, and on power and renewables. This gives us a deep and balanced perspective on the relationship between fossil and non-fossil sources of energy. 

Developing an independent understanding of, and forecasting, the energy transition is therefore of strategic importance to both us and our customers. 

Contents

The Energy Transition Outlook 2020 covers:

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